Sunny days kept optimism high at UKReiif. There is a lot to be excited about with a predicted wave of new housing applications expected over the summer.
A Government with a decent majority that wants to get homes built is a far better place than before last year. Whether you liked the previous Prime Minister or not, no one can argue that his was a tired Government on the ropes, divided by political infighting and fear of losing by-elections.
Less than a year on from the General Election and the development world is a better place. Unfortunately, some of the gloss was lost over the weekend with Prime Minister Starmer’s sabre rattling on housing starts. This did the rounds on social media with many in the sector fearing more cack-handed intervention.
That aside, here are my top takeaways from last week:
- The mayoral buzz is infectious. There is a genuine sense the Mayoral authorities across the country are starting to get the hang of banging the drum for their places.
- The development sector welcomes the Government rhetoric and its proposed reforms. However, it does not believe what’s on the table is going to achieve 1.5 million new homes over this parliament. The audience at the popular Rest is Politics event at UKReiif gave the thumbs down. Rory and Alistair were shocked!
- Investment is swinging heavily into housing development and away from flatted development. The unintended consequence of the Government’s third gear planning reforms. Bidwells identified 45% of all build to rent investment was now being captured by single family housing. Moreover, there is a genuine sense the predicted wave of new applications likely to come in over the summer period will be housing led development. Density led development is dying out and with it meaningful housing starts.
- The building safety act has led to a standstill on many schemes and it was a real shame the regulator didn’t come to the conference. The system is causing huge issues and much frustration, it doesn’t feel that anyone in Government is facing into this properly. They need to.
- There is a sense Angela Rayner needs to do less jobs and provide more focus on housing delivery. Listening to her, whilst it is clear she wants to see homes delivered she is not a twenty-four seven Secretary of State for housing when juggling the Deputy Leader and employment briefs. Doesn’t the housing crisis need more in the tank.
Here’s my top prediction. There is going to be much more radical reform coming but we are two years away. The numbers are not going to rise enough and the housing challenges are going to get worst. High density housing on brownfield sites needs more help and the reforms currently set out, however welcome are not going to address this. With numbers continuing to fall, expect some bigger ticket interventions to come including a return to the Jenrick growth zones and demand loans and subsidies.
