UKREiif 2026 — 12 months on, what came true, what didn’t
We’re back. UKREiif ’25 feels a distant memory: sun on my face and cautious optimism in the air. A new Government with a working majority, a wave of planning applications supposedly on the way, and a sector that wanted to believe things were about to get better.
Twelve months on and before I enter the conference, it feels right to hold last year’s takeaways up to the light. Readers will recall I made a series of observations and predictions coming out of it. What aged well? What didn’t?
The Scorecard
1. “The mayoral buzz is infectious”
Verdict: Confirmed — but it’s got complicated.
The mayoral tier has absolutely become the frontline. It looks like it now will become a conveyor belt for Prime Ministers with Andy Burnham on track to return to Westminster following a successful stint as Mayor of Manchester.
But it’s not all been plain sailing for City democracy. The London Mayor has had a terrible time on built environment matters and if anything has disrupted the case for more devolution with Whitehall. Many in Whitehall are now actively briefing against him and have given up on London which isn’t healthy and I am hoping for a big second half to the year for Sadiq as he rolls up his sleeves and uses his new powers and grant allocation. Meanwhile, Leeds itself hasn’t done much better with the Government pushing back the timetable for a new tram system by another few years.
The Mayors still appear to be the way forward and the buzz might be revived with the Mayor disco night on the Wednesday. Paul Bristow, Cambridge and Peterborough’s Mayor certainly appears keen.
2. “The sector doesn’t believe 1.5 million homes is deliverable”
Verdict: Vindicated — emphatically.
The Rest is Politics audience that gave the thumbs down in Leeds last year was right. Housing starts have not recovered. London is on track for another sub 10,000 year against a target of 88,000. The predicted wave of new applications over summer 2025 came — but it was house-led, suburban and largely outside London. The high-density brownfield pipeline that the numbers actually require has not materialised. The sector knew. Rory and Alistair were shocked. The sector was not.
3. “Investment is swinging heavily into housing and away from flatted development”
Verdict: Accelerated — and we now know why.
Bidwells had it right at 45% of BTR investment captured by single family housing. If anything that proportion has grown with the announcement on Sunday eve of a partnership with CBRE and Moda pumping an initial £400 million into single family rental.
Capital has gone where it can make returns. That means houses, not flats. Suburban, not urban. The unintended consequences of bad policies are now fully visible — and density-led development in London is in serious trouble.
4. “The Building Safety Act has led to a standstill — and no one in Government is facing into it properly”
Verdict: Getting better but so much still to do
A year on and this remains one of the most frustrating aspects of property development. The regulator didn’t come to Leeds last year. However there were changes in the management team with Andy Roe taking over later in the year.
The system is however still causing project delays, deterring institutional investment in high rise residential, and adding cost that makes already marginal schemes unviable. The political bandwidth to fix it simply hasn’t materialised.
5. “Angela Rayner needs to do fewer jobs”
Verdict: Resolved — in the most dramatic way possible.
Angela Rayner resigned as Housing Secretary on 5 September 2025, following a stamp duty controversy. Steve Reed, previously Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, was appointed in her place — a politician with genuine local government credentials, having led Lambeth Council, but who arrived mid-stream into a department already running at pace.
The honest assessment: Reed is more focused, more available, and more forensically interested in delivery than his predecessor. Whether that translates into measurably better outcomes is a question Leeds 2026 may begin to answer. Matthew Pennycook has remained in post throughout — the continuity at Minister level has probably mattered more than the change at the top.
The Big Prediction from Last Year: How Did It Age?
“There is going to be much more radical reform coming but we are two years away.”
Verdict: Correct
I said bigger-ticket interventions were coming. What actually arrived was the Mayor’s Support for Housebuilding LPG in March 2026 — emergency measures cutting the fast-track affordable threshold to unblock a land market that had seized up. That’s exactly the kind of intervention I was pointing at. It came faster than I expected — and it’s now under legal challenge from multiple London boroughs, with at least one judicial review application already filed and a window closing 19th June.
The growth zones haven’t returned yet. But the direction of travel — Government overriding the viability framework that was blocking delivery — is precisely what I predicted. We’re not two years away any more. We’re in the middle of it. I suspect more to come.
Leeds 2026
Expect caution this year. A leadership election and the Iran War has frustrated green shoots.
2026 may well be another year of survival, particularly with the bond markets now jumping about and watching the UK nervously.
Medium term, I remain optimistic if the UK political leadership can get its act together and I’ll give you my read out on the ground over the coming days.
See you in Leeds and watch out for me at 10:45 am telling it how it is on London delivery in the Cratus tent on Tuesday.
