Greens have made significant gains in Hackney, Haringey and Waltham Forest. Haringey and Hackney have both been pulled away from moderate Labour over a number of years. It isn’t a huge surprise to see them taken over by the Greens – many of whom hail from the Labour left. More disappointing is the loss of Waltham Forest, a moderate, pro-growth Council.
Ealing has been held by Labour. Peter Mason has been an astute Leader and has kept a check on local politics. However, he is cautious about new build development and has kept Ealing Labour out of big projects since the days of Julian Bell. The same is true of Hammersmith and Fulham which has performed an actively oppositional role to much development over the last few years.
Lambeth is another pro-growth administration that appears to be under pressure with huge gains to the Greens and some to the Lib Dems. They are still counting as I write this. Southwark also maybe suffering the same fate which is a shame as their newish Leader is competent and can do. Both Boroughs have strong Officer management teams which might help stabilize the ship.
Wandsworth, once a strong pro-growth Borough, shut down for investment over the last four years under a reactionary Labour administration, appears to be in No Overall Control. The Conservatives have made gains but will rely on an independent – Malcolm Grimston who left the party, if they are govern.
The Tories also strengthened their grip on Harrow. Harrow like Ealing has steered clear from big projects over the last few years and isn’t likely to concentrate on built environment issues over the next four.
Brent Labour have lost control but they may still form an administration. Again, under Mo Butt’s leadership they have been broadly pro-growth.
Reform has taken Havering. Part of their platform is a ceiling on development of 8 storeys.
Overall picture
We don’t have turnout figures yet but they look quite low from the smattering of wards across London I have had a quick glance at. I will do an analysis of the planning committee turnouts when we know next month.
It’s also too early to say how many YIMBY candidates got elected. My sense is fewer than last time. Reform taking Havering for example stood on a platform of 8 storeys and under. Meanwhile the Greens have a retrofit first policy. The Liberal Democrats have never been particularly interested in new development and appear to hold much of South West London now capturing Merton. So maybe not a good night for those who want more supply and housing development.
My experience of local government is that it can shape things meaningfully if three things align. First there is a cohort of competent and pro-growth officers. Second, the Leader and the Cabinet perceive built environment change as a positive. Third, the majority party group is willing to put up with ward level development without fracturing.
It’s pretty hard to achieve this and sustain it. Haringey did it for a while before it was pulled apart by Momentum. Wandsworth did it for much longer but the Conservatives lost their handle in 2022. Things are still early but the picture emerging is one of complexity and challenging times may lie ahead.
